Amy Kazmin in New Delhi
A government-appointed panel of health experts, epidemiologists and disease modellers have concluded that India’s coronavirus pandemic has peaked, and could be under control by February, as daily new cases gradually decline.
India, which has so far had 7.5m confirmed infections, reported an average of 63,025 daily new infections for the week ending Saturday, a 33 per cent drop from a peak average of about 93,300 per day in mid-September.
The government appointed panel of scientists suggested that the number of confirmed infections would not exceed 10m, and praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strict coronavirus lockdown for minimising the impact of the pandemic.
However, independent experts have questioned the report, pointing out that the test-confirmed cases are probably just a fraction of the country’s actual coronavirus burden.
Shoppers crowd a New Delhi market on Sunday
The country’s own sero-prevalence studies — which identify people that have had antibodies indicating prior exposure to the virus — found that 6.6 percent of the Indian population has been exposed.
That suggests that just one in 20 infections have been detected through testing, and that about 150m Indian are likely to have been infected, though possibly with no, or limited symptoms, or in areas where testing capacity is limited.
Health experts are concerned about the risk of a renewed surge in new infections during the upcoming festival season — a peak period for socialising, family get-togethers and as well as for consumer spending.
Harsh Vardhan, the health minister, this weekend pointed to the southern state of Kerala, which was hailed early in the pandemic as a coronavirus success story for its effective control measures, but which has since seen a surge of cases in the aftermath of its annual Onam harvest festival.
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