Plummeting Battery Prices Mean Electric Freight Trucks Could Be 50% Cheaper To Own Than Diesel

Heavy-duty trucks are an outsized polluter, considered one of transportation’s hardest-to-decarbonize aspects. But new research showing dramatic improvements in battery cost and technology mean zero-emission freight trucks are primed for electrification and could a major clean energy transition success in the coming decade.

The total cost of ownership for electric freight trucks could be 50% cheaper than for diesel trucks by 2030, generating billions in savings. Plunging costs, ever-increasing battery range, and an expanding fast charging network are creating an on-ramp to an electrified trucking future.  

While cheaper ownership costs and massive emissions reduction potential enable shifting to electric trucks, smart policies are still needed to help this nascent industry deliver the goods.

Billions in potential savings from electric freight trucks

Research from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, University of California-Los Angeles, and University of California- Berkeley, shows that the push to electrify heavy-duty trucks can capitalize on fast-falling battery pack prices, which have plummeted more than 85% in a decade and are expected to continue declining. This cost trend is the primary reason battery electric technology currently has an edge over the other leading zero-emission option, hydrogen fuel cell trucks, which lack extensive re-fueling infrastructure and face other challenges to widescale adoption. Neither option is widely available today, but truck manufacturers like Tesla
TSLA
, Volvo, Scania, and Kenworth are all launching electric models, meaning electric trucks are en route to U.S. roads.

“This exciting new potential for heavy-duty truck electrification offers significant economic and environmental benefits, and is emerging much faster than commonly believed,” said Dr. Amol Phadke of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “The observed decline in battery costs has been more dramatic than what was forecast just a couple years ago.”

International battery pack prices are currently $135 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), achievable for manufacturers producing electric trucks at scale. At that battery price, a Class 8 electric truck—the heaviest long-haul trucks, weighing more than 33,000 pounds—traveling an average of 300 miles a day would cost 13% less to own per mile than a conventional diesel truck. The electric truck in this scenario, with a range of 375 miles, would pay for itself in less than three years, saving the owner about $200,000 over its lifetime. Multiplied over a large trucking fleet these costs savings quickly add up into the millions, and multiplied over the estimated 2 million tractor trailers on U.S. roads these savings could run into the billions.

Even so, most electric truck models coming down the pike will cost more to purchase than diesel trucks. A 375-mile range truck with the current battery price of $135/kWh is expected to cost 75% more than a diesel counterpart, but upfront costs will continue falling as batteries keep getting cheaper – average battery prices are expected to hit $60/kWh between 2025 and 2030. This decline, along with vehicle design improvements and other enabling policies, mean electric trucks could deliver up to 50% lower total cost of ownership per mile compared to conventional diesel trucks.

California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule, the world’s first clean truck standard, illustrates potential savings from the shift to electric trucking. Modeling shows the standard could generate more than $7 billion in fleet operator savings through 2040 – $1 billion more than the state’s own estimate. Associated health benefits from reducing air pollution could reach $9 billion over the next two decades, and when battery costs approach those of passenger vehicles, potential savings rise to more than $12 billion.

Taking the long-range view on electric freight trucks

In addition to high costs, battery energy density (how much power batteries can store, and thus how far a vehicle can travel) was initially a roadblock to electric truck adoption, but today’s situation is dramatically different because of how freight trucks are used.

Range anxiety concerns are often cited as a reason not to adopt electric vehicles, but long-distance freight schedules combined with today’s battery technology capabilities make this even less of a detour for electric trucks. Battery energy densities have risen as battery costs have fallen, meaning electric trucks with a range of up to 375 miles (or 300 miles with an 80% full battery) might not need to reduce the amount of cargo they haul, since an electric power train weighs substantially less than a diesel one. Reducing freight truck weight and improving aerodynamics using commercially available technology will enable even greater ranges– Tesla’s pending Class 8 electric semi will have a range close to 600 miles.

Federal rules prohibit truck drivers from driving more than eight hours without a 30-minute break, translating to a distance of about 450 miles, meaning a 500-mile range is sufficient for commercial trucking purposes. And even a 300-mile range might be sufficient for a typical driving schedule. Oak Ridge National Laboratory research shows the average distance to a 30-minute break that could be used to add significant range with fast charging is 190 miles for long-haul trucks and 150 miles for regional-haul trucks, which account for 70% of the fuel consumed in trucking. This means most electric trucks will have sufficient range for most trips in the near future if charging infrastructure is built apace of electric truck deployment.

“In some ways medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are easier to electrify,” said David Wooley of the University of California-Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy. “They tend to charge at highly utilized central locations or freeway corridors, and have higher mileage with more regular duty cycles.”

Electric freight trucks are a clean air and climate change solution

Heavy-duty trucks loom large when it comes to air pollution, generating 83% of all freight-related carbon emissions. And even though they only make up 5% of total vehicles on U.S. roads, they are responsible for 30% of transportation carbon emissions and 36% of particulate matter emissions.

Particulate matter emissions—fine inhalable particles that pose the greatest health risk—cause nearly one in five worldwide deaths from air pollution, and this burden is borne unequally by communities located near transportation hubs like ports and airports or along freight routes. In California, exposure to particulate matter_{emissionsfrom vehicles is 43% higher for African Americans, 39% higher for Asian Americans, and 21% higher for Latinos relative to the levels white residents experience.}

The pollution toll paid for diesel truck reliance also includes regional and national concerns. Modeling of California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule found it would reduce smog-causing NOx emissions by nearly 60,000 tons by 2040, and reduce carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 17.6 million metric tons.

Electric trucks offer a high-speed lane to slashing dangerous local air pollution and slowing the climate crisis, especially if the trucks run on clean electricity. Parallel policies that promote zero-emission vehicle sales and a decarbonized electric grid can dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation and power sectors. These types of compounding reductions are lynchpins to putting the U.S. on a 1.5 degrees Celsius pathway, which scientists say is necessary to avoid the worst consequences of a changing climate.

“This exciting new potential for heavy-duty truck electrification offers significant economic and environmental benefits, and is emerging much faster than commonly believed,” said Dr. Amol Phadke of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “The observed decline in battery costs has been more dramatic than what was forecast just a couple years ago.”

Policies to accelerate an electric freight truck future

The enormous economic, climate, and environmental justice opportunities offered by electric trucks will remain in the rear-view mirror without smart policies to transition away from diesel trucks. The electric truck industry, like any nascent industry, will have to weather an initial period of unpredictable demand, profitability, and private investment. Absent strong policy support, this period will drag on and the nation’s electric fleet may not reach the scale necessary to decarbonize trucking in due time.

State-level electric truck sales requirements like California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule are a strong start, but additional policies are needed to boost electric truck adoption and instill confidence in the technology. These policies include purchasing incentives and financing support, more high-powered charging infrastructure, incentives to encourage domestic manufacturing, and improved planning to streamline electrified transportation corridors. Policymakers should also focus on workforce development programs to support factory retooling, charging infrastructure installation and maintenance, electric truck assembly, and maintenance needs so that electrifying the U.S. trucking sector creates good jobs and improves global competitiveness.

Regulators and utilities will also play an important role in the electric truck future. Utilities must be able to deliver increased power load as transportation electrifies, which will require thoughtful planning and mitigating cost impacts on other ratepayers. Some electric utilities are piloting commercial electric vehicle rates and removing demand charges, which can be costly for truckers and discourage charger installation in low-utilization locations. As utilization increases and more electric trucks hit the road, regulators and utilities should consider the most appropriate rate designs and regulatory changes to support continued growth and reflect system benefits like managed charging that balances supply and demand.

Let’s plug into the electric freight truck future

Transportation must be electrified on the road to a safe climate future that limits warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Fast falling battery costs mean that future can include even our heaviest freight trucks, lowering costs for fleet operators and consumers along the way. And cleaner trucks mean cleaner air for communities that have traditionally suffered more from diesel pollution.

As federal policymakers and utility regulators map out the pathway to a decarbonized U.S. transportation fleet, they must include the complementary policies necessary to ensure electrified trucks reach their potential.