The Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement reveals a dogged determination to accommodate despite increasing evidence of economic recovery, strong demand for labor and rising inflation. Chairman Jerome Powell seems eager to urge patience on raising interest rates for the sake of increasing labor participation. This approach reflects lessons learned about economic growth during the Trump administration, but changed conditions render it inappropriate for the current moment.
It isn’t that the framework is faulty. To the contrary, it incorporates the realization that low unemployment combined with productivity gains isn’t inflationary because it results in increased output. This contradicts the Phillips-curve notion that low unemployment leads to high inflation—which central banks must then counter by raising interest rates.
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