Former Gilmer physician, Dr. Jeff Gusky, warns of imminent virus spread, but also gives hopeful advice on how to mitigate the danger
This is a story about imminent Covid danger coming to East Texas in the next 6 weeks. It’s also a story about how to mitigate this danger ahead of time with simple measures that will give us realistic hope.
On August 3rd, with the cooperation of a Utah technology company called PurpleAir LLC, I developed a cloud based visualization of Covid danger called The Viral Safety Index. It’s like “a weather forecast of viral danger that helps you stay out of the rain”.
Abundant scientific research over many years shows that respiratory viral pandemics happen when the ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY of the air we breathe is low. But until now there was no way to use the science because there was no way to “see” the science and share it with the public in real time. This all changed on August 3rd.
We can now measure ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY remotelyat specific locations. Better yet, for the first time we can “SEE” viral danger INDOORS. Covid mass spread ONLY occurs indoors.
The data is automatically published to the cloud for all to see for free with their smartphones.
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The Viral Safety Index enables the public to “SEE” the risk of Viral Danger before they enter a public building.
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The Viral Safety Index enables businesses to “KNOW” in advance when they must increase ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INDOORS to lower the risk of Covid hotspots.
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The Viral Safety Index is also a free marketing tool for businesses to proudly inform the public that the INDOOR air INSIDE THEIR BUSINESS is SAFER AGAINST COVID.
Fluctuations in Absolute Humidity are seasonal. They change with the weather. Because seasonal weather patterns are similar from one year to the next, by looking backwards to see what Absolute Humidity was during the past 12 months we can look forwards and predict what Absolute Humidity will be this fall and winter. When Absolute Humidity outdoors is LOW, the risk of Covid mass spread INDOORS is HIGH. But Covid risk is easy to mitigate.
By keeping ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INDOORS at 10 gm/m3 or above, businesses can be made safer against Covid.
Low Absolute Humidity in East Texas over the past 12 months shows alarming Covid danger on the horizon. A PurpleAir outdoor sensor in East Longview reveals that in about 6 weeks, East Texas will begin to see days when Covid risk exceeds the most dangerous days in Wuhan last December when the Covid “Bomb” exploded. East Texas will see days like this, where the risk of Covid mass spread is high, for 6 1/2 months.
Days with Low Absolute Humidity COME WITHOUT WARNING! The danger is invisible and often occurs on glorious days when the weather outside is gorgeous. You can’t feel the danger and have no way of knowing that you are breathing dangerously dry INDOOR air without measuring INDOOR humidity.
But now that East Texans can see the danger, they can solve the danger by simply maintaining INDOOR Absolute Humidity at 10 or above around-the-clock. Since most people can’t measure Absolute Humidity at home, the next best thing is to buy an inexpensive digital hygrometer to measure Relative Humidity INDOORS. If Relative Humidity is between 50 & 60%, the Absolute Humidity is likely to be 10 or above. But there’s no time to waste.
A national Covid catastrophe is looming. Many of America’s largest cities will soon experience drops in Absolute Humidity substantially more dangerous than Wuhan last December … all about the same time. Hundreds of cities from coast-to-coast will be overwhelmed with Covid mass spread. This represents a National Security Threat that has not been reported.
Until August 3rd, communities had no way to see this danger ahead of time. Now they can see it and become safer in time to save lives, reopen the economy more safely and lower the risk of Covid mass spread.
COVID NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT
Many American cities will soon experience Wuhan levels of Covid danger because their ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY will drop. Absolute Humidity is a measurement of the weight of water in the air and is the most precise predictor of Covid Hotspots and Covid mortality that we’ve got. When it’s low, Covid mass spread and Covid death rates skyrocket. The good news is that Covid hotspots all but disappear when Absolute Humidity INDOORS is 10 gm/m3 and above.
This risk assessment comes from recent data on Absolute Humidity which has only been available since August 3, 2020 when The Viral Safety Index first came into being.
The Viral Safety Index enables us to predict future Covid risk in a particular city by looking at Absolute Humidity data in that city during the prior 12 months. Since Absolute Humidity follows seasonal patterns, the past is predictive of the future. The Viral Safety Index approximates WHEN Covid risk will strike and HOW BAD it will be this coming fall and winter.
If three days of dry air in mid-June nearly overwhelmed hospital capacity in Houston, Texas during July, what will six months of dangerously dry air blanketing most of America’s largest cities at the same time do to America this fall and winter? A National Security Threat is on the horizon which is not being addressed by medical bureaucrats leading our Covid response.
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The Viral Safety Index data shows that we are currently in the eye of a Covid hurricane … Covid mass spread will soon explode across the country and will be sustained.
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Many of America’s largest cities will experience Covid risk FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN WUHAN last December when the Covid pandemic first struck
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High risk of Covid mass spread will come to Boston, New York City/Long Island, Salt Lake City and Phoenix in about three weeks
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By early October, many other large American cities will face an onslaught of Covid risk much worse than Wuhan. See examples below:
Background Info On Dr. Jeff Gusky
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Board-certified Emergency Physician
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Fellow – American College of Emergency Physicians
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National Geographic Photographer
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Explorer. Discoveries known around the world & featured on Broadway.
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Work currently on display at The Smithsonian National Museum of African American History & Culture in We Return Fighting.
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In 2017 & 2018, an 18 month exhibition calledArtist Soldiers at The Smithsonian National Air & Space Museum was the centerpiece of The Smithsonian’s commemoration of the recent Centennial of World War I
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Hosted Smithsonian Channel Documentary Americans Underground: Secret City of World War I
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LinkedIn Page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffgusky/
THE SCIENCE BEHIND ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY
Human Susceptibility
SUMMARY –TheYale University School of Medicine reports that outdoor and indoor climates are linked to the seasonality of viral respiratory infections. They report “devastating disease course following exposure to dry air”.
Absolute Humidity
SUMMARY – “Our results also indicate that the RISK OF DYINGfrom COVID-19decreases onlywith ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INCREASING. Breathing dry air could cause epithelial damage and/or reduction of mucociliary clearance, and then lead to render the host more susceptible to respiratory virus infection;
SUMMARY –In this study, the 8 cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30° N to 50° N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11 °C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and LOW ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY (4-7 g/m3).Using weather modeling, it may be possible to estimate the regions most likely to be at higher risk of substantial community spread of COVID in the coming weeks and months, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.
SUMMARY –This study from The Massachusetts Institute of Technology showed that unlike temperature however, therange of ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY across which most of the cases have been documented has consistently been between 3 and 9 g/m3.
SUMMARY –Previous studies indicate that relative humidity (RH) affects both influenza virus transmission (IVT) and influenza virus survival (IVS). Here, we reanalyze these data to explore the effects of ABSOLUTE HUMIDITYon IVT and IVS. We find that ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY (AH)constrains both transmission efficiency and IVS much more significantly than RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH). In the studies presented, 50% of IVT variability and 90% of IVS variability are explained by AH, whereas, respectively, only 12% and 36% are explained by RH. … differences in AH provide a single, coherent, more physically sound explanation for the observed variability of IVS, IVT and influenza seasonality in temperate regions.
SUMMARY –This study from the Mayo Clinic observed a significant reduction (p HUMIDIFICATIONas compared to control rooms. This suggests the future potential of ARTIFICIALHUMIDIFICATION as a possible strategy to control influenza outbreaks in temperate climates. There were 2.3 times as many ILI cases in the control rooms compared to the HUMIDIFIED rooms, and whether there is a causal relationship, and its direction between the number of cases and levels of influenza virus in the rooms is not known. Additional research is required, but this is the first prospective study suggesting that exogenous HUMIDIFICATION could serve as a scalable NON-PHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTION for influenza or other viral outbreaks.
SUMMARY –This study provides novel ecological evidence that ABSOLUTE HUMIDITYand temperature affect influenza mortality in human populations. Most significantly, this research supports the emerging hypothesis that ABSOLUTE HUMIDITYis a critical determinant of observed influenza outcomes, even after controlling for temperature.
SUMMARY – This study and epidemiological analysis, spurred by experimental data on influenza virus transmission and stability, have identified ABSOLUTE HUMIDITYand temperature as climatic predictors of influenza epidemics in temperate regions of the world. In sum, strong correlations exist between influenza activity and LOWABSOLUTE HUMIDITY… in temperate regions of the world.
Conflicts of Interest Disclosure
I have no commercial ties to PurpleAir LLC of any kind & am engaged in this project to save lives and help reopen the American economy safely.
Jeff Gusky, MD FACEP
Credit: Source link
